Technology is the Next Victim of Disruptive Technology
An interesting Newsweek interview with Harvard economist and author (The Innovator’s Dilemma) Clayton Christensen, who introduced the world to the concept of “disruptive technology” 15 years ago.
Mr. Christensen makes prescient observations on the coming decline of Apple (he thinks the performance of Apple products may be outstripping the performance that mainstream consumers need, and that the interdependence of their hardware and software is misguided in the long run); and that the next industry to fall victim to “disruptive technologies” will be the software industry (as a result of the increasing pervasiveness of cloud services).
As interesting as those observations are, I find the following quote the most insightful from the perspective of a business strategist:
Ironically, one thing that many promising startup companies suffer from is having too much capital. Once a company gets burdened with too much investor capital, it starts to think that it needs to grow very quickly. Almost always, a startup’s first strategy is wrong. Once they get out into the marketplace and try to sell things, they find that many of the things that they had assumed are untrue, and that their strategy needs recalibrating. But when a company is overcapitalized, the founders can assume that they’re right for quite a while before they start to need to depend on peoples’ willingness to pay. The more capital, the longer a company can go without testing its fundamental assumptions. (Emphasis added).
As Mr. Christensen so aptly makes clear, the assumptions that underlie a business strategy are as, if not more, important than the strategy itself. The assumptions are the foundation of the strategy, and need to be closely and continually monitored, challenged, and refined — with corresponding course corrections to the overall strategy and direction of the business.
Most companies (and people) are hesitant to change direction for fear of being perceived as uncertain or wavering in commitments made. Understand and articulate the assumptions underlying those promises and commitments – and don’t be afraid to change course quickly if those assumptions turn out to be wrong.
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